Geophysical Journal | 2006 volume 28 2

On a possibility of a short-term forecast of destructive earthquakes by the signal information from SLW transmitters

© A.P. Slivinskiy, F.I. Bushuyev, N.A. Kalyuzhnyi, Yu.M. Obraztsov, A.V. Shulga

Continuous round-the-clock digital record of amplitude of signals and exact times and frequencies of two SLW radio stations (DCF-77 (Mainflingen, Germany) and RBU-66 (Moscow, Russia) is carried out per each second in scientific research institute NAO. Signals of radio station DCF-77 have been registered since April 2002, and radio station RBU-66 - since October, 16, 2004. The current three-day plotting of change of a signal's amplitude of radio station DCF-77 that is updated with 5 minutes' tempo and archive of these plots for all the period of observation are placed on a site http://www.mao.nikolaev.ua. The accumulated time sequences of SLW signals' amplitude has been analyzed and on both channels of registration an amplitude decrease has been revealed that is characteristic for an ionosphere prediction happened two days prior to the earthquake of magnitude 5,9 which occurred on 27.10.2004 in Romania. At the same time the SLW signal's amplitude perturbation on meridian radio line NAO-RBU-66 was shown to be much more strong, than on radio line NAO-DCF-77 directed along the parallel that can be a result of space anisotropy of ionosphere disturbance: its elongation in meridian direction. The analysis of seismic observations for the period since April, 2002 till October, 2004 has shown that only for the specified earthquake in Romania the estimation of ionosphere disturbance's scale is more and is approximately equal to the distance to radio lines. Within time interval from October, 24 till October, 27, 2004 solar and geomagnetic situation was quiet.

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