Geophysical Journal | 2007 volume 29 4

Condition and problems of theories of earthquakes prediction. Analysis of bases from position of appointed approach

© Yu.L. Rebetskiy

Analysis of principal theoretical grounds of earthquake center preparation and results of the studies have been made in the article aimed at earthquakes prediction. The conclusion has been made on primary character of the studies of natural stresses in the network of problem of seismic hazard estimation. The basic phenomena are being considered, which determine heterogeneity of the stress state of seismogenic areas of the earth's crust, classification of stress fields and deformations of different scale of averaging is given. Principal regularities of faulting strain of rocks have been plotted on a Mohr diagram with application of stress state analysis. Existence in nature of several mechanisms of dissipation of mechanical energy accumulated in elastic strains needs to be taken into account in case of estimation of seismic hazard of hierarchic character of stress and strain fields.

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