Geophysical Journal | 2011 volume 33 6

Models of general circulation of the atmosphere and the oceans in forecasting the changes of regional climate of Ukraine in the XXI century

© Krakovskaya S.V., Palamarchuk L.V., Shedemenko I.P., Djukel G.O., Gnatjuk N. V.

For the first time quantitative characteristics of probable climate changes in Ukraine during the 21st century for three SRES emission scenarios B1, A1B and A2 have been obtained from an analysis of 84 runs of 10 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) used for AR4 IPCC-2007. The analysis of AOGCM's results has shown that projected differences of the averaged over the territory of Ukraine surface temperatures of the ending and the first decades of the 21st century will be in limits: B1 - from 0,7 to 3,0 with ensemble mean 2,0±0,8; 1 - from 2,4 to 4,2 with mean 3,1±0,7; and 2 - from 2,6 to 4,6 with mean 3,8±0,8. There is not such an agreement for precipitation variations during the 21st century between AOGCMs, and precipitation changes vary from -23,4 to +11,6% up to the end of the 21st century comparing to 2001-2010. Therefore, more detailed precipitation change projections for the territory of Ukraine could be made only with regional climate models. The most rapid changes of surface temperature and precipitation have been obtained in AOGCMs for 2 scenario, the slowest - for 1 respectively. The model ECHAM5/MPI-OM has been determined as the most successful AOGCM in simulation of climate of Ukraine because statistical analysis has shown that differences of its results with ensemble mean were minimal. Results of this model could be recommended as initial and boundary conditions for simulation of climate of Ukraine with regional climate models.

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