Geophysical Journal | 2013 volume 35 2

On scientific principles of short-term earthquake prediction

© Strakhov V.N., Savin M.G.

Critical review of existing methods of short-term earthquake prediction and some results of mathematical modeling of the processes of fracturing in lithosphere is developed. General scientific methodology of short-term prediction is formulated including five necessary and two sufficient conditions increasing probability of the forecast of seismic event according to the authors' opinion. Vital necessity is underlined of immediate creation of areal complex observation net for geophysical monitoring of the focus of imminent destructive earthquake as well as artificial intellect to implement rank recognition of seismic situation in automatic regime. Attention is paid to making demands to computing instruments for equipping observation net (clusters of powerful computers). Conclusion is made on the necessity of creation of special federal Program, with a task of producing the system of short-term prediction of the earthquakes.

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