Geophysical Journal | 2013 volume 35 2

On phenomenological models and seismic activity prediction: whether pessimism is legitimate or hopes are substantiated

© Shuman V.N.

Some problems and methods of modeling and seismic activity forecast are considered. Attention is concentrated on phenomenological approach. Ontological complexity of the real geomedium studies is underlined - the open nonlinear dissipative dynamic system - and multifactor way of undergo of external physical fields. Recital is based on the fact that self-organized critical systems are slightly chaotic ones. It is sufficient that in contrast to completely chaotic ones such systems are in principle relatively long-term predictable. It brings to the solution of the problem definite perspectives, and to the analysis of temporal sets (observed ones) having fractal structure - important details.

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