On phenomenological models and seismic activity prediction: whether pessimism is legitimate or hopes are substantiated
© Shuman V.N.
Some problems and methods of modeling and seismic activity forecast are considered. Attention is concentrated on phenomenological
approach. Ontological complexity of the real geomedium studies is underlined - the open nonlinear dissipative dynamic system - and
multifactor way of undergo of external physical fields. Recital is based on the fact that self-organized critical systems are slightly chaotic
ones. It is sufficient that in contrast to completely chaotic ones such systems are in principle relatively long-term predictable.
It brings to the solution of the problem definite perspectives, and to the analysis of temporal sets (observed ones) having
fractal structure - important details.