Geophysical Journal | 2014 volume 36 3

On forecast and predictability of seismic process

© V.N. Shuman

Special features of evolution of geo-medium, which has a quality of self-organized criticality, problems of physics of destruction in the earth's crust, predictability and forecast of seismic process dynamics are being discussed based on the ideas and methods of nonlinear dynamics. It is mentioned that the key problems of multileveled self organization and taking into account nonlinearity of hierarchically organized geo-systems are still weakly elaborated and need con- cretization. Attention is accentuated on some aspects of formation of focal zones of destruction in the earth's crust, the stage of pre-destruction and super-fast catastrophic stage of evolution. Regimes of excitation of autostructures in geo-medium, problems of repeatability of large-scale ruptures are considered. An attempt of interpretation of strong seismic event as an autostructure (autosoliton) of great amplitude or localized dissipative structure of sharpening, which are formed in geomedium in case of strict regime of its excitation as a part of the single seismic process. A set of problems is considered related to principal predictability of the process, quality of intermittence, synchronization, phenomenon of stochastic resonance, problems of dynamic description of nonlinear systems with chaotic behavior according to the data of monitoring observations. It is mentioned that the presence of a regime of sharpening of the process (pre-destruction phase) can be considered as a physical-mechanical basis of existence, manifestation and search of foreshock phenomena. From this viewpoint the problem of strong earthquakes forecast does not look like hopeless and gives reason for optimism.

Key words: seismicity, spontaneous fluctuations, dynamics, dynamical systems, auto synchronization of oscillations.

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